Can "hearts and minds" survive a crisis? Experimental evidence of dashed expectations in the Philippines

Abstract

An expansive research agenda examines whether public service delivery in conflict zones induces civilians to cooperate with the government. We report results from a four-year randomized controlled trial in the Philippines that extended government services to a conflict-affected region during the Covid-19 pandemic. The program initially increased civilian cooperation with the government, but later generated a backlash in trust and confidence after a strict nationwide lockdown halted program implementation. These negative effects were driven by the government’s inability to meet heightened expectations about its capacity, effort, and fairness. After the program restarted in 2021, attitudinal and behavioral outcomes in treated communities partially recovered, but not to the positive levels observed before the pandemic. Overall, our findings suggest that cycles of crisis and disruption can erase the gains from even highly popular and effective government programs in conflict zones.