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Alliance networks and trade: The effect of indirect political alliances on bilateral trade flows
Journal of Peace Research 53:3 (May 2016)

Digit ratio (2D:4D) and social integration: an effect of prenatal sex hormones
Network Science (Forthcoming)
With Jaromír Kovárík, Pablo Brañas-Garza, Shannon Carcelli, Michael Davidson, and James Fowler

Using networks to combine ‘big data’ and traditional surveillance to improve influenza predictions
Nature, Scientific Reports 5 (2015)
With Michael Davidson and Jennifer Radin


Civilian Social Networks and Credible Counterinsurgency.

Job Market Paper — Spreading hearts and minds: Inter-village social networks and credible counterinsurgency in the Philippines

My dissertation argues that civilian willingness to share information vertically  with counterinsurgents is driven in large part by information about counterinsurgent credibility that flows horizontally  through civilian social networks. Information that civilians receive through their social networks regarding broader patterns of military control and development projects reduces their uncertainty about the effects of cooperating with government troops and insurgent militias. To test this argument, I use newly collected data on 1) family ties between over 55 million individuals in 42,000 Philippine villages, 2) village-level rebel presence (from military intelligence reports) and 3) counterinsurgency-related development projects. I show that social networks structures (both within and between villages) shape information flows about development projects and local security that have profound impacts on counterinsurgency effectiveness. I then use simulations based on the findings from the empirical models to identify improved counterinsurgency targeting strategies that take local social structures into account.

Ongoing Projects and Working Papers

Community Policing in Conflict Zones — RCTs with the Sorsogon Police

As part of EGAP’s Metaketa IV initiative on conflict, I am working on several ongoing experimental interventions with the police in Sorsogon Province of the Philippines, an area with a highly active insurgency. These interventions aim to test whether community-oriented policing practices are able to win civilian trust and improve information flows from citizens to the police. By randomly assigning which officers participate in the program and where they are assigned, we also explore whether participation in community-oriented policing can affect officer knowledge and empathy for the community where they are operating. In particular, we are interested in how social network ties connecting officers and civilians (social ’embeddedness’) impacts program effectiveness and how civilian social networks impact the spillover of citizen perceptions about security forces. With Nico Ravanilla and Matthew Nanes

Other Projects

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